The Rays own the best OPS over the past 15 days, while the Rangers sport the worst. Hard-throwing Jack Leiter is coming off a dominant performance, but I love this matchup for the Tampa Bay lineup. Leiter is giving up too many barrels, not to mention an expected slugging percentage of .448. Back Tampa to send the Rangers to their 12th loss in 16 games.

The Rays did everything except win the Run Line last night. A 5-0 lead turned into a 5-4 win as the Rangers scored in the 9th inning. Otherwise, another win for TB, now 11-3 across its last 14 games, and though the lead was shaved last night, it was the latest solid effort from the pitchers, who have allowed only 28 runs across this 14-game run. Thursday's Ryan Pepiot isn't responsible for any of those 28 runs as he 's allowed 0 across 13 2/3 IP in his last two starts, vs. Toronto and Houston. Meanwhile, Texas continues to spin its wheels, losing 11 of 15, while losing five of the last seven starts by Thursday's pitcher, Jack Leiter. Play Rays on the Run Line.

Junior Caminero went hitless yesterday, but he's been swinging a hot bat lately with 5 home runs over his last 7 games played, bringing his season total to 14. He's playing at home, where he has an .854 OPS and has hit 10 of his 14 home runs. Rangers' starter Jack Leiter has improved at preventing home runs after a rough start to his career, but he's still struggling to go deep into games due to control issues. Leiter either has to start attacking the zone more—which could lead to more home runs allowed—or the Rangers will have to rely on a bullpen that was taxed in yesterday's loss. We set the line at +330 for Caminero to homer.