This is a strong value play at +800, especially considering the line is as low as +450 on Caesars. Stephenson has homered in the first two games of this series, helping the Reds to back-to-back wins. Though the sample size is small, he's been excellent against left-handed pitching this season, posting a 1.124 OPS with four extra-base hits in just 19 at-bats. Historically, Stephenson has hit lefties well, with a career .276 average against them. Royals starter Noah Cameron has been impressive early in his career, allowing just two earned runs over his first three starts. However, both of those runs came on solo home runs by right-handed hitters, suggesting some vulnerability. We set the line for Stephenson to hit a home run at +500.

It's the year of the under in MLB and I'll take it here with these two lineups; Royals can't hit and the lineup goes about 4 deep. Reds are 10-3-1 to the under in their last 14 games on the road; outside of their bandbox the offense suffers. We like the plus money here. Hunter Greene is as good as they come. The young lefty for the Royals has been sharp so far.