Feels like a tricky spot for the Yanks at the end of a six-game West Coast trip and with a massive home game vs. Juan Soto and the Mets up next on Friday. Austin Wells and Paul Goldschmidt are out of the lineup. New York's best reliever, Luke Weaver, pitched two innings on Tuesday so can't imagine he's available. Devin Williams has pitched Monday and Tuesday so probably not him, either. And I all but guarantee you the Yanks will need the bullpen a fair amount today behind Will Warren (5.06 road ERA). Seattle's Luis Castillo has a 2.89 home ERA.

Seattle has the pitching edge in this matchup with Luis Castillo on the mound. While the Mariners lost his last start, they had won the previous three with him pitching. Castillo has a strong 3.13 ERA at home since last season, compared to a 4.67 ERA on the road. The Yankees are just 3-5 in Will Warren's starts and may be looking ahead to getting back home from the west coast and facing the Mets in the Subway Series. With the Mariners at home and holding the pitching advantage, our model would price them as -115 favorites, making -102 a solid play.

FanDuel. Luis Castillo has remained under this line in five of his eight starts. He’s above average the pitches per plate appearance metric at 3.95, and below average throwing in the zone at 42%. That should lend to a difficult matchup against the Yankees who see the eighth most pitches per plate appearance (3.94), and have the lowest chase rate in baseball. Would bet this to +100 or better.