Jonathan Aranda may not be a household name, but he's been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, ranking fourth in batting average among qualified hitters. He's also had great success against Jose Berrios, going 4-for-8 with two home runs. Berrios has surrendered 93 home runs since 2022—more than any other pitcher in the majors. With Aranda's track record against Berrios and the latter's home run issues, the +500 line offers strong value compared to a our line of +350.

The Blue Jays have scored 29 runs during their four-game win streak, with second-year outfielder Addison Barger driving in six. They're back at .500 and face a slumping Rays team that's lost eight of 12. Rays starter Shane Baz has been lit up in his last two starts, allowing 17 hits and 13 earned runs over nine innings. In those starts, he fanned four and walked five. Jose Berrios has been solid over his past three starts, giving up a total of four earned runs. Over the past seven days, the Blue Jays own an .834 OPS while the Rays have a .596 OPS. I would play this to -130.