James Wood is in a prime spot to go deep today. He faces Grant Holmes, who has struggled with the long ball, posting a 1.8 HR/9 rate to start the season. Wood, a left-handed hitter, has been crushing right-handed pitching, and the weather conditions are favorable for hitters in this game. Based on our model, we set the fair line at +430, making this a strong value play.

Grant Holmes has gone over this number in four of his last six starts. While the Nats don't have a high overall strikeout rate, they do chase out of the zone a lot, which Holmes can take advantage of.

Note that some rain is in the forecast Monday in Atlanta, so perhaps this gets washed out. The Nats are flailing right now on a five-game skid, all by multiple runs. And those were at home. Washington is 7-12 away, and it wouldn't shock me if Manager Dave Martinez is sacked this week if the team is swept in this series. Atlanta is 12-6 at home. Can't say I trust Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes a ton, but he has been better at Truist Park with a 3.00 ERA in four outings. Only a few Nats have seen him career.