The Twins have won five straight, but I'll take the 24-14 road team against Chris Paddack. Minnesota has lost six of his seven starts, and his expected ERA of 5.01 isn't much better than his actual 5.57 ERA. He has only struck out four total batters in his last two starts covering 10 innings. The Giants were off Thursday so their bullpen is rested behind Jordan Hicks.

Paddack has the lowest K% of his career so far in 2025, and has been very boom-or-bust with strikeouts. He's had five or more in three starts and only two in each of the other four. Tonight he's facing a Giants offense with plenty of swing-and-miss to it, and I like our odds for a boom.