We're probably not going to make a habit of under recommendations at Sacramento, especially in day games, but make an exception here. This matinee shapes up as a potential pitching duel, as Bryan Woo continues in top form on the mound for the Mariners. No foe has scored more than three runs against Seattle in Woo's last four starts, in which he's posted a 2.05 ERA. Meanwhile, we can take one more chance on A's rookie Gunnar Hoglund, who mostly handcuffed the Marlins in his MLB debut last Friday, allowing only one run in 6 IP and picking up a win in Miami. Note these sides have only exceeded eight runs once in their six previous meetings this season. Play Mariners-A's Under.

Our model isn’t fully convinced by the A’s strong 20-17 start, as they have played an easier schedule, including series against the White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies. Their expected record is actually several games below .500. The Mariners have played a tougher schedule and exceeded expectations, moving into the top-5 in our power rankings. The A’s are just 7-10 in Sacramento, while the Mariners have a 9-8 road record. Gunnar Hoglund was impressive in his first MLB start, but we expect some regression as he faces a tougher team. Bryan Woo is 6-0 with a sub-1.00 ERA against the A’s, making the Mariners ML a good value. We would set this line closer to -180.

Bryan Woo allowed just 1 hit in 6 innings in his last start and 3 hits in 6 innings the start before that, totaling 4 hits in his last 12 innings. The A’s have been solid against RHPs this season, but they managed just 4 hits against Emerson Hancock yesterday, and Woo is currently a better pitcher. Woo has been excellent against the Athletics, limiting them to a .467 OPS in 7 games, with a 6-0 record and a 0.72 ERA. Despite the A’s improvement, Woo should have a lot of confidence facing them.

Gunnar Hoglund doesn't have overly impressive numbers but he did generate 11 whiffs for a 31% rate in his debut. Admittedly, this line and price are showing value and the play is not about how "great" Hoglund is (or this matchup) but rather about value. Hoglund struck out seven Marlins in his debut but faces a Mariners lineup that has avoided strikeouts at a much better rate than last year. He generally throws around 80 pitches and I would anticipate similar work here, meaning we can be far worse than a strikeout per inning and still get over the number. Worth a half unit at least in my opinion.