I think we are getting a little value here with the total set at 4.5. The number is 5.5 at some books, so I will lay the extra juice. Lugo has at least five strikeouts in three of his last four starts and he typically gets through 6.0 innings. I like his chances of getting over 4.5 K's today vs. the Rays.

Lugo got off to a slow start this season when it comes to missing bats, but he's averaging 5.75 strikeouts per start over his last four outings and I have his projection closer to 5.5 here.