Jarren Duran has owned José Berríos in his career, going 9-for-18 with a staggering 8 extra-base hits (3 HRs and 5 doubles). As the leadoff hitter, any early XBH puts him in immediate scoring position, especially with Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman swinging hot bats behind him. This matchup gives Duran a great opportunity to cross the plate, and our model sets the fair value line at -140.

After a very slow start, the Red Sox sparkplug is mashing everything, going 10/20 with 3 XBH in his last 4 games. He is 9/18 with 3 HR in his career vs Jose Berrios; Berrios has a 5.94 ERA at Rogers Centre this season already allowing 4 HR in 16 2/3 IP. They have moved fences to make it a hitter's paradise, and Duran has a career .655 SLG and 1.028 OPS there. Oh, and he bats leadoff, so maximum plate appearances. Toronto also has a vast underbelly in it's pen outside of its two shutdown arms. We don't play a ton of these, but this siren call was impossible to resist.