Cardinals-Reds was rained out, so we'll play this in its place. Kansas City is 3-10 on the road and starter Michael Lorenzen is 0-3 with a 5.74 ERA on the road. Tampa Bay has won five straight and those were all away. Taj Bradley has been a little hit or miss in 2025 but threw five shutout innings last year vs. KC.

Bobby Witt is in the middle of a 19-game hit streak, but he's only gone deep once during that span. While the power hasn’t been there yet this season, Witt does lead the American League with 12 doubles and appears to be seeing the ball well. His barrel rate is down to the 50th percentile after ranking in the 92nd last season, but the consistent extra-base hits suggest he’s close to finding his power stroke. Against Taj Bradley—a pitcher who has been prone to giving up home runs—+425 offers good value on one of the league’s most dynamic hitters. Our model makes this a fair play at +402.