Kansas City Royals starting pitcher in Seth Lugo has had issues withstanding beyond four innings this season. His last two starts the opponent has hit four total home runs in the fifth inning for a combined six runs. Although Lugo was phenomenal against the Astros last season, his current form even at home is too troublesome to bypass. Take the Astros as the slight road favorites.

Hayden Wesneski has recorded 5+ strikeouts in 3 of his 4 starts this season, and we like the value in this play at+110. The Royals are coming off a doubleheader yesterday, and we expect some fatigue to set in aka “doubleheader hangover." Our model sets his line at 5.4 Ks, so we see good value in this play at plus money.

Seth Lugo's strikeout numbers have dropped this year, and it's leading to some value in the betting market. He's only finished with fewer than four strikeouts in one of his first five starts , and he's facing an Astros offense that isn't quite what it used to be, but still includes plenty of swing-and-miss.