The Diamondbacks average over 10 runs a game and have scored 131 runs on the season, which you might think would be a great mark for an over team, but they're only 10-10-4 to the over the season, meaning they're just as likely to go under as over. What aided my decision today was the starting pitcher, Drew Rasmussen for the Rays, who has allowed only two runs in four starts and has stayed under in three of his starts. Corbin Burnes has gone over three times, but he had his best start in his last outing, even though it went over, he allowed two runs in six innings to the Cubs in a 13-11 game. I'm on the under here.

Corbin Burnes has yet to pitch up to his contract in Arizona. After debuting with eight strikeouts against the Yankees, he's only managed three in each of his last three starts. Today he faces a Rays offense that does a good job of avoiding strikeouts.