Junior Caminero is an enticing HR bet at +460 on FanDuel, with our model making the fair line closer to +368. Carlos Carrasco gave up just one hit in his last start, but that hit was a home run by Bobby Witt Jr. — and it cashed one of our HR props earlier this week. Carrasco is no longer the swing-and-miss pitcher he once was, and this is a favorable matchup in a hitter-friendly park. Caminero, meanwhile, is heating up in a big way — he’s homered four times in his last seven games, all of which have come at home. With his power stroke coming alive and a soft matchup on deck, Caminero is in a prime spot to leave the yard again.

Shane Baz is finally healthy and looking like the Rays latest stud starter. He has wipeout stuff and Yankees bats have come back to earth in a big way. Carlos Carrasco is pretty washed and having to pitch in this tiny minor league ballpark will do him no favors. His 6.12 FIP is actually lower than I thought it would be. I don't love the Yanks middle relief if Carrasco does get a quick hook.