Austin Riley has cashed this number in 7 of his last 10 games despite going 0-for-8 with six strikeouts in his previous two games. Simon-Woods Richardson has allowed a hard hit rate of 50% (13th percentile) and a 27.3% ground ball rate (8th). Riley has a hard-hit rate of 54% (89th) and an Expected Slugging average of .549 (85th). Truist Park ranks fourth in adjusted hard-hit percentage over the last three years, and Austin has higher slugging percentages in six of his seven seasons at home (excluding the COVID year) in his career. Truist Park ranks first today (Saturday) in ball travel, exceeding the normal distance by 8%. My model has him pegged for 3.6 total bases.