Xavier Edwards presents some value in the stolen base market at +290. While Taijuan Walker isn’t known for allowing a high volume of stolen bases, the line is as low as +210 on Fanatics, and our model sets it at +275. Edwards has been on a tear lately, carrying an 11-game hitting streak that includes four multi-hit games. He consistently finds his way on base and has the speed to capitalize. Despite the tougher matchup for base stealing, the price at +290 offers enough value to justify at least a small play.

Our model sets the line for a Matt Mervis home run at +300, suggesting there’s a solid edge here. He was overmatched yesterday against Zack Wheeler — no shame in that — but he gets a much softer matchup today against Taijuan Walker. Walker surrendered two home runs in his last start after keeping the ball in the park through his first two, but his 7.10 ERA from 2024 means his last start is probably more indicative of how his season is going to go. Mervis is a two true-outcome hitter (HR and K) and he’s especially dangerous in the right conditions. With the wind blowing out to right field in Philly today, this is a great setup for the lefty slugger to go deep.

This would be my ML limit on here -- I would definitely prefer -1 (at around -150; I just don't like -1.5), but I'd also prefer to be taller and thinner, and we don't always get what we want. Feel like that's a song. This would be near the -300 block if it were probably any other Phillies starter than Taijuan Walker so, yeah, Philly probably isn't winning scoring just 2-3 runs on Saturday. But I expect the Phils to light up Cal Quantrill.