Luis Castillo returns to his old haunt tonight after spending the first five-plus seasons of his career in Cincinnati before traded to the Mariners midway in the 2022 campaign. His Seattle team looks to have finally straightened out after the weekend sweep of the Rangers, and Castillo sports a 2.12 ERA in three starts. But the Reds look like they mean business, with some outstanding pitching just having handcuffed the Pirates in a dominant three-game weekend sweep. Cincy has won five of six, allowing just 11 runs across those six games. Nick Lodolo has been in the best form of his career on the mound, with an 0.96 ERA and 0.70 WHIP across his first three starts. Play Reds on Money Line.

I like getting plus money on the under here. Seattle games have been low-scoring, with the under going 8-6 on the season and games averaging just 7.87 runs. Cincinnati games are even more tilted to the under, hitting it at a 9-6 clip and averaging just over 7 runs. While Seattle has shown a bit of life offensively, scoring 5+ runs in 3 of their last 4, I’m not fully buying into the surge yet. Nick Lodolo has back-to-back starts ending 1-0 and no runs allowed in his last 12.2 IP. Luis Castillo has allowed just 4 earned runs in 17 IP this season. Game-time temps will feel like the 40s – not ideal for hitters. We have the under hitting in 54% of simulations.

Seattle's Luis Castillo -- a former Red -- has been terrific thus far but all three starts were at home and Castillo's road splits weren't very good in 2024. The Reds might have their best roster of the season today with the expected activations off the injured list of outfielder Austin Hays and closer Alexis Diaz. Cincy starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has been pretty great so far as well with a 0.96 ERA in three starts.