While it's quite true that Burnes's K rate has come down from his peak with the Brewers, he still has multiple devastating pitches and is facing a youthful and naive lineup here. The Nats have the highest K-rate in MLB (89 through just 8 games) and guys like Dylan Crews and Nathaniel Lowe seem intent on swinging at everything. Five Nats have already whiffed at least 11 times and its a dreary and overcast day in DC and picking up the ball after a night game might not be so easy.

This is fishy to me, but sometimes I can't resist. Corbin Burnes pitching in DC this time of year is not new to him, spending all of last season in Baltimore. The Nats' pen is already on fire and they are going to perhaps have to pen this game up. D-Backs bats have been great even with Ketel Marte now hurt. The Snakes are a veteran team who blow off a getaway day at the end of a long road trip to open the season. I don't buy the Nats arms and most of their bats, and even after early explosion Sat could still only scratch out 4 runs.