They reprise the Game 2 matchup on the mound for the deciding Game Five on Saturday, and with all due respect to Cleveland's ex-Tiger Matthew Boyd, it's the current Tiger Skubal we would rather shade. That's because the AL Cy Young favorite hasn't allowed a run in his last three starts and only one spanning 25 IP in his last four starts (0.36 ERA; all four of those being wins for Detroit). Stephen Vogt might have Boyd on a tighter leash, with Boyd working only 4 2/3 innings on Monday, allowing 4 hits (no runs). in his previous three starts, however, he'd allowed 9 runs (5 earned) and 15 hits across 11 IP. We'd rather back Skubal in this series-decider. Play Tigers on Money Line

In all best-of-5 postseason series, teams that have won Game 4 when trailing 2-1 have then won Game 5 and the series 27 of 48 times (56%). Detroit's Kerry Carpenter, the hero of Game 2, might not be available after getting injured in Game 4. This is certainly not a fade of terrific Tarik Skubal but simply believing it's going to be a low-scoring, one-run game. Ideally the D wins (personal reasons; I would hate a Yanks-Guards ALCS as well) and I push. Not a huge day/night splits guy but with the time change due to weather, Cleveland was 12 games over .500 in day games during the RS and Detroit four over. Skubal's road splits overall were great but still quite worse than home.