Sometimes the most dangerous postseason teams at least for a round are the teams that stumbled down the stretch. Over their final thirteen games Kansas City went just 4-9 overall. Yet, they have new life now and in Cole Ragans lone trip to Baltimore this season he gave up just one hit through six and a third innings. Additionally, Baltimore has not won a postseason game since 2014. Take the Royals as the underdog in game one.

There's a strong pitching matchup here with Corbin Burnes facing off against Cole Ragans. I see these teams as being much closer to equal than the market suggests, and I like the F5 runline market at +0.5 in these conditions, which favor pitching. We can cash this bet if the game is tied at the end of 5 innings. In 58.5% of simulations, I have the Royals either winning or tied at the end of 5, which implies that the line for Kansas City +0.5 should be -141.

The Orioles have won eight of the last 10 against the Royals and went 4-2 two against them this season with Corbin Burnes getting the Orioles two wins behind him. The Orioles failed miserably in the playoffs last year and I'm sure that's going to be a story going on this year but Burnes wasn't there last year and the Royals have been sluggish the last 2 weeks not hitting the ball. In their last 12 games, they hit an MLB worst .186, that's number 30 out of 30. In the last two weeks the Orioles have been the No. 4 hitting team in baseball batting .269. The Orioles are taking this series seriously. Corbin Burnes pitches well in game 1, Orioles win.

This is why the Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes and they better win his start or they are in big trouble with so little pitching behind the soon-to-be free agent. The former NL Cy Young winner has a 1.29 ERA in his past six starts and has playoff experience from his Brewers days. Kansas City's Cole Ragans, who also has been great of late, has none. And the Royals were MLB's lowest-scoring team in September at 2.96 runs per game. It's possible that KC gets slugger Vinnie Pasquantino back, but he can't be 100 percent yet only a month or so after fracturing his right hand. I consider the starting pitchers/bullpens about a wash. This is simply backing the vastly superior lineup at home.