Kambi books have this at 17.5 while the rest of the market is at 15.5 outs. I have to admit, this is a nice spot for Michael King, drawing a Braves team that should be gassed after yesterday's double header and traveling last night. But there is a reason this number is 15.5 is most spots, as King went a full six innings in 15/30 starts this year and 2/4 in September. Going six innings is not a lock for him by any means and in the playoffs with a solid bullpen, 17.5 outs is near his ceiling, where going a full six innings means he was highly efficient with little trouble faced. Possible middle opportunity between 15.5 and 17.5 outs!

The Braves' pitching staff is in tatters after the doubleheader on the Monday, to the point that they are starting Ian Anderson, who hasn't thrown an MLB pitch since 2022. The Padres are the better team anyway and were the best second-half team in baseball. This shouldn't be close.

This is about as confident as I can be on an MLB playoff game. The Braves have been through so much since Sunday (when they lost a home game I was about as confident I could be on) and their bullpen is completely wrecked. Travel cross-country late Monday. Chris Sale is not pitching Tuesday and it's not clear who will start. Frankly doesn't matter to me. If Atlanta wins this, major kudos because it doesn't appear to have a single advantage. San Diego's Michael King had a 2.11 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over his final seven RS starts.