The Orioles are 5-1 with a +19 run differential against the Red Sox this season. The O's have won Zach Eflin's three starts since acquiring him and he has a 2.33 ERA there. Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta is inferior. The Orioles are the better team here, too, and they actually don't win a ton of games by one (12 wins out of 71), so I like grabbing the run line here due to the big number (+158).

I'm already on the Orioles moneyline so this is somewhat contradictory, but the Red Sox need some length from Nick Pivetta after last night's extra-inning game thinned out the bullpen. Pivetta will be plenty rested having his last start skipped. There's certainly a chance that the Orioles pound Pivetta early and knock him out before five. But ideally he goes a decent five and still we win both bets. His road splits (3.76 ERA) aren't bad. The model has Pivetta at 5.5 innings.

The Red Sox come off maybe their toughest loss of the year, blowing a three-run lead with two outs in the ninth and falling in extras -- and using a big chunk of the bullpen in doing so. Thursday starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has a 7.71 ERA in his past three and might be rusty as he was skipped last time through. The Orioles had a fairly easy win Wednesday over Washington and their bullpen is in much better shape than Boston's. Starter Zach Eflin has three straight quality starts since landing in Charm City from the Rays.