Carlos Rodon and Seth Lugo are both pitchers who are likely to experience negative regression against quality lineups, especially as we get into the warmer months. Kauffman Stadium continues to play as one of the best hitting environments in MLB, far better than Yankee Stadium. My concern with Nestor Cortes is he's allowing the highest hard hit rate of his career this season, especially with his fastball, which he throws 55% of the time. The .368 xwOBA is far below MLB average, but the 93 MPH average exit velocity is the big concern here against a stingy Royals lineup. On the other side, this is a tough test for Seth Lugo who has drastically overperformed with his low wiff rate fastball.

At this price, fading Rodon against one of the best offenses so far vs lefties is worth at least a half unit but I'm going to play a full one here. Rodon has been fantastic so far, eclipsing the six inning mark in 9/13 starts and he's looked like a much different pitcher than last year. Going into Kansas City won't be an easy test though, and we're getting +130 to go under six full innings, so I like the price for what we need. Aaron Boone also loves to play the matchup game and the Yankees bullpen is fairly rested here, especially the first and second relievers out of the bullpen.

This is a tough matchup for Carlos Rodon against a very stingy Royals lineup that has been excellent against opposing southpaws. Rodon hasn't been quite as good on the road and the Royals combine the 3rd lowest K Rate and the 8th highest OPS against left handed pitching.

Yanks coming off a playoff-like series vs Dodgers, very late flight to KC, for a series with a very different vibe. They face Seth Lugo; Royals 9-4 in his starts and are 24-11 at home on the season; only the Phillies have more home wins. Carlos Rodon has been far better at home than on the road for the Yanks. Aaron Boone had to manage weekend like it was a playoff series. And Yanks offense has stalled without Juan Soto in the lineup and am I wagering that he isn't making his return on a quick turnaround in KC on a Monday night.