Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober and both overrated pitchers who will come back to earth. I like plus money on a play where we win if we get an eighth run. Minnesota can go yard and score in a hurry, KC can score in a variety of ways and is looking to snap a recent skid.

True Ober is better at home than on the road….but KC strikes out less than 7x per game…only the Astros are better. And KC is actually striking out LESS lately. Under.

Lot of KC hitters licking their chops today, as they beat this starter up. He's allowed 3 ER or more in 4 of his last 5 starts against them, allowing 21 ER total in that span. Royals have totaled 5 runs or more in 6 of their last 7 outings with Ober on the mound for the opposition. He couldn't get through 2 innings against them earlier this season. Methinks they are in his head.

Twins starter Bailey Ober does not enjoy facing the Royals. Current K.C. batters own a collective 1.074 OPS against him, which incudes an abbreviated start of 1.1 innings back on March 31. Last year he faced K.C. twice and cleared this line once, but he allowed 15 hits and seven earned runs in 9.2 innings combined. The Royals enter with the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. And for the season, they are striking out just 7.02 times per game.

Seth Lugo has been one of the best starters in the league this season and actually leads the majors in quality starts. While Lugo is pitching well, he is a regression candidate and his underlying metrics have been subpar. He's failed to record six strikeouts in 7/11 starts this season, in addition to sporting a 20% K Rate against the Twins projected lineup.

This is amongst my favorite props on the entire slate today for a myriad of reasons. First and foremost, if we check under the hood, Ober is running hot on strikeouts. This is also a very tough matchup against a Royals lineup that owns a 1.074 against Ober, in addition to a 20% K Rate. KC has been lights out recently and in the month of May possess a bottom three K Rate that they pair with a top three OPS.

Royals are 8-2 in Seth Lugo's last 10 starts, winning all 8 by 2 runs or more. They won 5 of them by 5 runs or more, and who doesn't love an easy cash? Lugo has allowed over 2 ER just once this season and tends to get legit run support. Bailey Ober is 0-3 vs KC in 8 career starts with a brutal 7.24 ERA and 1.71 WHIP with 49 H and 7 HR allowed in 32 1/3. All the key Royals have rocked him. KC entered play Tues an MLB-best 35-20 on the run line.