This line has now dropped and is very favorable. Verlander has an edge over Kirby….and we don’t lose the tie. Take the Astros

I like Houston first 5 ML and have played that…but while every other book has Houston at -110….still -102 at FanDuel so I’ll take the additional 8 cents. IF you can’t find better than -110 then pivot to first 5

The Mariners have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last seven games. Dylan Moore played in six of those games and didn’t cross home plate in any of them. Moore is only batting .239 this season, but he has a .358 OBP because of his 12.3 percent walk rate. Don’t look for him to draw many walks in a matchup with Justin Verlander, who only has a 6.8 percent walk rate for his career. For his career, Moore only has a .304 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. This is not an adventitious spot for Moore to score a run.

George Kirby has struggled in the month of May and has only 19 Ks through 30 IP. He's only eclipsed this line once in his previous five starts and required going 7 IP in order to land on approximately 6 Ks. He will have the unenviable task of facing a Houston lineup that has the stingiest in the majors this season and possesses the MLB's lowest K Rate. The Astros are also quite familiar with KIrby having already faced him recently and only struck out 3x over a 6 innings. Kirby owns a paltry 20% K Rate over 90 ABs against this Houston lineup.

The massive park shift in Seattle will be a nice boost for Verlander who is already inducing soft contact. The Mariners strikeout more than anyone in the league against right-handed pitching and I expect that to continue in this matchup. My simulations have the Astros as 54 percent winners which implies this line should be -117.