Ronel Blanco has probably been pitching over his head, but I don't understand why giving up at least three earned runs is the favored side here. He threw up blanks for two straight games then gave up just two earned runs against a Rangers team that's much more potent offensively than the Nats and was seeing him for the second time in a week. The Nats are averaging 3.63 runs per game but have scored three or fewer in six of the last eight. The Astros bullpen is well-rested and can bail Blanco out at the first sign of trouble in the middle innings as well.