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Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker is 6 for 10 over his last three games and gets a great matchup Wednesday versus Rockies lefty Austin Gomber. Lifetime he's 5 for 13 with three extra-base hits against Gomber.
Four of the five Diamondbacks wins this season have come against the Colorado Rockies. Today expect runs on both sides as Austin Gomber has not made it beyond five innings in either of his two starts. On the other side Tommy Henry gave up five runs to the Rockies on March 30th. Look for the Rockies to get a couple of big innings today and win their first series of the season.
Already on the Under 12 (which is gone now) and I will also throw a little down on the Snakes simply as I like their lineup so much better today as the Rox are resting Charlie Blackmon and Elias Diaz, two of their best hitters. Ketel Marte is back for Arizona.
These two pitchers squared off in Arizona in March 30 in a game that featured 13 runs, which could have been even more if the Rockies bullpen hadn't pitched 4.1 scoreless innings despite walking six batters. Both Tommy Henry and Austin Gomber have had control issues so far this year, and walks will translate into runs in this hitting environment. While 11 is a big number, Rockies home games averaged 11.8 runs last year, and the pitching matchup should have us expecting it to be on the larger end of that scale. I think we're getting some value on a line that should be 11.5.
12s are disappearing off the board (was 12.5 at one point) as this is another weather game: Forecast for Coors Field this afternoon is temps in the 50s and winds blowing straight in from center field about 10-15 mph. It's still Tommy Henry vs. Austin Gomber so we may get halfway to 12 in the first inning.
I'm going to fade Tommy Henry on the strikeouts line again after he burned me last time out. "Burned" is maybe how I should write it because Alex MacKay the home plate umpire really burned us that night, gifting a strike three on Ronald Acuna to end a rally and allow Henry to limp over the 4.5 K's line. In Coors following a career high in pitches, let's try this again...
Austin Gomber hasn't finished the 5th inning in either of his two starts let alone pitched into the 6th inning. Gomber has been around 90 pitches in each start and has been inefficient with six walks in 8.2 innings. He would have to throw one of his best games here to reach the 6th inning and I'm still not sure it would happen; Cal Quantrill gave the Rockies six innings yesterday and they have an off day Thursday. Arizona has been one of MLB's best teams against left handed pitchers so far, led by Ketel Marte, who's a better hitter against lefties and was off Tuesday. His prop line for total bases is at 2.5 and I lean to the over at plus odds.
Tommy Henry gave up five runs on six hits and two walks in his first start of the season against this Rockies club. He now faces them after going five innings against the Braves last start, needing a career-high 102 pitches to get there. After that last start, and with this game being in Coors Field, I'm going to fade Henry making an out in the 6th inning. The Rockies offense doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, but I'm going to believe there was at least some substance to their previous performance vs Henry and that they won't lay a duck here. Draftkings has this at +100, half unit play.