This is a good price on the Brewers and Freddy Peralta, who allowed one run over six innings in his season debut. Peralta used his explosive stuff to fan eight Mets in the 3-1 win. Logan Gilbert also was sharp in his debut, but he's facing a much tougher lineup. The Mariners are batting .196 with four homers in their first seven games. Current Mariners are a collective 2 for 22 against Peralta with 15 strikeouts.

Seattle gets a positive park shift moving from T-Mobile Park to a dome. Logan Gilbert has added a cutter and fine-tuned his curveball, so he doesn’t have to rely on his fastball as much. The FB usage is already down 10% from last year.

In his career, Freddy Peralta has been much better at home than on the road and he's always struck out hitters at a very high clip. Last time out, he struck out eight in six innings. This time around, he gets the Mariners, who lead the majors by striking out 30.2% of the time. This means I expect Peralta to strikeout at least 1/3 of the batters he faces in this one and THAT means he'll get to eight in the sixth inning. The juice is worth the play here.