Dodgers/Diamondbacks over 9.5 (1.5 units) My model has this total 12. The Dodgers offense is one of the top five in baseball while Arizona is above average versus right-handed pitchers at home over the last 60 days. Both starting pitchers are below average. Brandon Pfaadt was knocked out by Milwaukee is his last outing and he was hit hard by the Dodgers in two starts. He lasted 8 2/3, allowed 14 hits and 8 earned runs. Pfaadt allowed 22 home runs in just 96 inning during the regular season. Dodger starter Lance Lynn did pitch better with the Dodgers than he did with the White Sox but Lynn hasn't pitched since September 29th. Lynn allowed a league high 44 home runs in 183 2/3 innings.

Like the Rangers in the AL, the D-backs have caught fire in the playoffs, winning four straight on the road to reach the brink of moving into the NLCS. Arizona has jumped on Dodger pitching from the outset in this series and now the Blue must cross its fingers with Lance Lynn, who allowed an MLB-high 44 homers this season, and bailed out consistently by the Dodger offense after the deadline deal with the Chisox. Torey Lovullo will have a similar quick hook for Brandon Pfaadt, but it's the selective swings of the suddenly-disciplined Arizona offense that has put the Dodgers on the ropes in this NLDS.

Dodgers starter Lance Lynn has been better with the Dodgers, but that's still a 4.36 ERA and his home run rate has gone up. He gave up 44 all season, leading the majors. The D-backs counter with rookie Brandon Pfaadt. The Dodgers saw him earlier this season in Chase Field and scored four runs in 4 2/3 innings. I'm expecting more damage this time, as they are just about to bust out from their funk after leaving so many on base in Game 2. Neither bullpen will be dominant, either. Expect a busy scoreboard operator.

Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman picked the worst time of the year to slump at the same time as neither has done anything in this series. Guess I understand why Arizona is a dog with Brandon Pfaadt on the hill, but is Lance Lynn really that much more trustworthy on the other side? Certainly the Dodgers will be ready to empty the pen behind him. Lynn led the league with 2.2 home runs allowed per nine innings this year. The Snakes are 4-0 in these playoffs and this is their first home game.