I realize that Milwaukee has the edge in the starting pitching matchup, but this price is way too good. The Brewers have lost six of their last eight. Over the last 15 days, they have a 4.98 ERA, ranked 24th in baseball. Meanwhile, in its last three series, Pittsburgh has won two, taking down two teams vying for playoff positions (San Diego and Philadelphia), and split a third against Detroit. My model's simulation average money line probability of 42.0% is drastically different from the consensus odds implied probability of 32.5%, which means you're getting strong value at this price.