The Yankees took Game 1 in this series, but I'm not expecting a repeat. The Astros are the much better team and are just starting to get healthy and right. Luis Severino on the mound for the Yankees only helps the Astros offense. He's given up at least seven runs in three of his last five starts. The Yankees offense is, on balance, bad. It hasn't seen much of Astros starter Hunter Brown at all, and that's to his advantage. Take the Astros to roll.

SportslineAI loves this over with a 5.1 - 4.9 scoreline totaling to 11 runs. Mike McClure broke down the pitchers perfectly in his pick explanation. Luis Severino on the season has a 7.49 ERA and now he is pitching against a Houston Astros team whom already average 4.7 runs per game on the season. The Yankees rank 7th in the league in home runs this season and Hunter Brown gives up a home run approximately 11% of his innings pitched.

I like the Over while we still have a push condition at 9 runs. Both lineups are finally healthy, and we have two vulnerable starting pitchers on the mound: Luis Severino vs. Hunter Brown. Luis Severino has allowed 7 ER in three of his last five starts and has struggled with consistency all season. Severino's major issue is he doesn't have a good fastball anymore, but he's still throwing it over 50 percent of the time. The xwOBA on this pitch is .432, and the average exit velocity is up to 93 MPH. On the other side is Hunter Brown, who has really struggled with giving up HR away from home this season. Brown is also throwing his fastball over 40 percent of the time, and the xwOBA here puts it below the MLB average. I'm on the Over.