The Marlins are falling to pieces, especially on the road. Sandy Alcantara rarely looks like his 2022 Cy Young self. He has allowed 8 more ER this season (66) in 12 fewer starts than he did all of last season (58) and has lost his past three road starts, allowing 11 combined runs. Consider a Brandon Lowe hitting prop as he has great splits off Sandy. No Garrett Cooper or Jean Segura in the starting nine for Miami. Tampa's Zach Eflin has become some sort of wizard/mage/magic-user -- yes I did play Dungeons & Dragons but not one of those "Cruel Doubt" dudes who kept going into his 20s -- at Tropicana Field with a 10-1 record and 2.10 ERA.

The Marlins are in trouble. They fell to the Rays on Tuesday, marking their ninth loss in their last 10 games. They have really struggled away from Miami, having lost 10 straight games on the road. They will be facing an uphill battle against Zach Eflin, who has a 2.10 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP at home. Meanwhile, they will start Sandy Alcantara, who has a 4.91 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP on the road. Look for Eflin to lead the Rays to a victory.

Zach Eflin has enjoyed success in Tampa Bay this year. His home ERA is a stellar 2.10 through 11 starts and he boasts a 10-1 record. For contrast, Sandy Alcantara is 2-5 on the road and has allowed 10 HR's in 66 innings away from Miami. Even though the Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 games, Miami has been worse at 1-9. The Marlins are also 23-28 on the road vs 31-20 at home, while Tampa is a MLB best 37-18 at home. Miami's offense has struggled vs RHP too, producing the league's second worst OPS of .624 since returning from the All-Star break. Last night, they only recorded four total baserunners and one run vs Tampa's pitching. I don't think much changes here...

Tampa has clearly not been the same team after their dominant run over the first two months of the season. They are 4-7 since the All-Star break and find themselves 1.5 games back of the Orioles in the hyper competitive AL East. While it remains to be seen if they can get the ship pointed in the right direction, this looks like a good spot to back them. Zach Eflin is on the mound and he has been solid all season but particularly at home where he is 10-1 with a 2.10 ERA. Sandy Alcantara on the other hand has struggled and has an ERA of 4.70 and Miami has lost four consecutive games he has started. I'll take the home team to win.