I have the Cardinals winning 55 percent of simulations meaning this line should be closer to -122. Tylor Megill relies too heavily on his 4-seam fastball (50% of pitches) which is well below MLB average with a .422 xwOBA. I also have issues with his slider in this matchup as the xwOBA has ballooned up to .370 on that pitch. The Cardinals have struggled at times but this is still a top 10 offense that walks more than average and strikes out less than league average. I like this pitching environment overall for Miles Mikolas who catches a break not having to face Pete Alonso. I'm on the Cardinals.