Even with Marcus Stroman starting for the Cubs, I think this is a decent price for the Giants. Yes, Stroman has led the Cubs to wins in his last four starts, but the Cubs are also on a four-game losing streak. Anthony DeSchlafani could be better, but there's not much offense happening to worry about. Chicago has been terrible on the road, where they're 5-18 in their last 23. Even though the Giants are returning from Colorado, I think they pick up a win today against the Cubs.

The return of Joc Pederson should do a lot for this San Francisco offense, and my model loves the Giants tonight. Marcus Stroman's been electric for Chicago, but he can't singlehandedly carry the Cubs every time he pitches. San Francisco is winning outright in 65% of my model's simulations.