I like the Under tonight in Toronto with Manoah and Bielak on the mound. Bielak has been strong over his last four starts thanks to a deep pitch arsenal that includes the 4-seam, changeup, sinker, and slider. Manoah is someone I'm not ready to give up on just yet because the strikeout upside is still there to help get out of trouble at times. I'm most interested in his slider that is a full 12 MPH slower than his sinker and 4-seam fastball. The gap from actual wOBA to xwOBA on this pitch is significant and the data suggests he should find success with the pitch moving forward. I make the total in this game 8.9 runs. I'm on the Under.

The wrong team is favored here. Blue Jays Alek Manoah has struggled this season with a 1-6 record and 5.46 ERA. The Blue Jays have lost six straight games that Manoah has started. The Astros are 18-6 in their last 24 games since starting the season 17-18. They are also 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Astros starter Brandon Bielak has allowed just seven runs over his last four starts. The Astros should be able to score enough runs against Manoah to win this game.