The Red Sox are 19-7-1 Over at home, averaging 6.1 runs while allowing 5.6 runs. The 34-year old James Paxton goes for Boston, making his fourth start of 2023 after basically sitting out the past three years because of Tommy John surgery. Paxton's command is a concern and he is a below-average pitcher at this point in his career. Cincinnati's Luke Weaver is coming off his best start of the year, but still has an ERA of 5.45 and has allowed nine home runs in just 38 innings. Take the Over.

Boston laid an egg for us tonight in this matchup but we'll go back to it Wednesday behind James Paxton (3.60 ERA in lone start at Fenway this year), who probably won't have to deal with Reds leadoff hitter TJ Friedl, who left tonight's game with an injury. Friedl has been blisteringly hot at the plate since coming off the injured list. Maybe the Reds use up all their hits tonight. It's Luke Weaver (1-2, 5.45 ERA) on the mound Wednesday.