This is a difficult -- and maybe reckless! -- thing to say about a 69-86 team, but the Cubs seem safe at this moment. They are 35-29 in the second half and have won eight of their last nine. Starting pitcher Adrian Sampson has been pretty good most of the year, but he's upped his game with a 1.67 ERA in his last six starts. He's thrown well against the Reds in two starts this season, too. Reds starter Graham Ashcraft is in a rough patch and has been squared up by the Cubs twice this year. Plus, the Reds have lost 16 of 20 and are much more in "playing out the string" mode than the Cubs. Let's grab the run line (-1.5, +140) for maximum payout. It's a mismatch.