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    Fri 08/19 | 6:20 PM UTC | Chicago
    SpreadMoney Lineo/u
    Milwaukee Brewers 30-27, +144 ML
    MIL -1.5+115
    MIL -140
    Over 10-115
    Chi. Cubs 25-31, -513 ML
    CHC +1.5-135
    CHC +118
    Under 10-105

    Expert Picks

    MLB | Milwaukee 7 @ Chi. Cubs 8 | 08/19 | 6:20 PM UTC

    Chi. Cubs +1.5 -135

    WIN

    ANALYSIS: I worry slightly about the Cubs playing in their third city in three days (at least didn't have to fly between stops 1-2), but I think a possible letdown is coming for the Brewers after just splitting four at home against the juggernaut Dodgers. And frankly the Cubs have the better starting pitcher today in Keegan Thompson (6-2, 2.40 ERA at home) over Aaron Ashby (1-7, 4.55 ERA on road). Thompson hasn't allowed a run in six career innings vs. the Brew Crew. The Cubbies also really enjoy beating the Brewers, so I don't think they will be flat. Milwaukee is 1-6 in its past seven on the road. FYI: Chicago last defeated three teams in three ballparks in a three-day stretch June 11-13, 1947. I don't care if the Cubs win today -- very well could -- as will take the RL at -135.

    author-image

    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays
    +967 45-25 IN LAST 70 MLB ATS PICKS
    +774 17-7 IN LAST 24 MIL ATS PICKS
    +808 17-7 IN LAST 24 CHC ATS PICKS

    Season Splits

    30-27, +144 ML
    25-31, -513 ML
    All Games
    ALL
    All Games
    53%
    63-55, -1097
    51-67, -1129
    43%
    On Road
    LOCATION
    At Home
    50%
    32-31, -555
    25-34, -963
    42%
    As Favorite
    STATUS
    As Underdog or Even
    57%
    53-40, -733
    35-47, -208
    42%
    When Line was -157 to -127
    MONEY LINE
    When Line was +105 to +135
    57%
    16-12, -54
    14-20, -340
    41%
    As Road Favorite
    LOCATION & STATUS
    As Home Underdog
    53%
    24-21, -462
    14-20, -282
    41%
    vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
    OPP WIN%
    vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
    54%
    32-27, -683
    11-16, -372
    40%
    vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
    OPP DEFENSE
    vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
    52%
    37-34, -1032
    26-31, -838
    45%
    3rd game without a day off
    REST
    3rd game without a day off
    50%
    44-43, -1196
    40-47, -481
    46%
    vs CHC
    HEAD TO HEAD
    vs MIL
    42%
    6-8, -378
    8-6, +537
    57%
    when Aaron Ashby starts
    PROJECTED STARTER
    when Keegan Thompson starts
    29%
    5-12, -827
    9-8, +78
    52%