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Fri 08/19 | 6:20 PM UTC | Chicago
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Milwaukee Brewers 83-72, -1382 ML
MIL -1.5+115
MIL -140
Over 10-115
Chi. Cubs 70-86, -239 ML
CHC +1.5-135
CHC +118
Under 10-105

Expert Picks

MLB | Milwaukee 7 @ Chi. Cubs 8 | 08/19 | 6:20 PM UTC

Chi. Cubs +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I worry slightly about the Cubs playing in their third city in three days (at least didn't have to fly between stops 1-2), but I think a possible letdown is coming for the Brewers after just splitting four at home against the juggernaut Dodgers. And frankly the Cubs have the better starting pitcher today in Keegan Thompson (6-2, 2.40 ERA at home) over Aaron Ashby (1-7, 4.55 ERA on road). Thompson hasn't allowed a run in six career innings vs. the Brew Crew. The Cubbies also really enjoy beating the Brewers, so I don't think they will be flat. Milwaukee is 1-6 in its past seven on the road. FYI: Chicago last defeated three teams in three ballparks in a three-day stretch June 11-13, 1947. I don't care if the Cubs win today -- very well could -- as will take the RL at -135.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+5228 345-202-1 IN LAST 548 MLB PICKS
+694 12-4 IN LAST 16 MIL ATS PICKS
+598 12-5 IN LAST 17 CHC ATS PICKS

Season Splits

83-72, -1382 ML
70-86, -239 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
53%
63-55, -1097
51-67, -1129
43%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
50%
32-31, -555
25-34, -963
42%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
57%
53-40, -733
35-47, -208
42%
When Line was -157 to -127
MONEY LINE
When Line was +105 to +135
57%
16-12, -54
14-20, -340
41%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
53%
24-21, -462
14-20, -282
41%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
54%
32-27, -683
11-16, -372
40%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
52%
37-34, -1032
26-31, -838
45%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
50%
44-43, -1196
40-47, -481
46%
vs CHC
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIL
42%
6-8, -378
8-6, +537
57%
when Aaron Ashby starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Keegan Thompson starts
29%
5-12, -827
9-8, +78
52%