My dad likes to say, "if it looks too good to be true, it probably is." He won't be happy with this pick, then. Only -145 on the -1.5 run line seems way too easy here and we're taking it. The Nationals are coming off a 6-19 July and their best two hitters (Juan Soto and, to a lesser extent, Josh Bell) are likely distracted by trade rumors. Nationals starter Patrick Corbin leads the majors in losses, hits allowed and earned runs allowed. He gave up six runs in just 2/3 of an inning last time out. The Mets are playing great baseball right now, having won six in a row and 10 of 13. And Max Scherzer will dominate his former team.

The Nats have dropped six straight behind Patrick Corbin. Not to mention, Washington has already lost all three of Corbin's starts against the Mets this season, which the Mets covered in all. Mets ace Max Scherzer led New York to a 7-3 win in his first start of the season against his former team. The Mets have won six straight games. Expect them to make it seven tonight. Play the Mets -1.5 at -130.

Max Scherzer has been dominant since returning from the injured list, allowing five earned runs over five starts covering 32.1 innings. He's fanned 45 and walked four in that span. Washington sends out lefty Patrick Corbin, who has been shelled in four straight starts. Over his last 16.2 innings, Corbin has yielded 20 earned runs. And in three starts vs. the Mets this season, Corbin is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA. Play the Mets -1.5 runs at -130.