The Red Sox went 8-19 with a negative-77 run differential in July. As I enter this pick, Nathan Eovaldi is set to start, but he could be a late scratch due to the trade deadline (he's a free agent after this season and would make sense to go if they sell). Even if he goes, he's been terrible since returning from injury and the Astros have great recent history against him, including the ALCS last year and a brutal start earlier this season (9 runs in 1 2/3 innings). Astros starter Luis Garcia is inconsistent, but the Astros are the much better team here, they are at home and the Red Sox are missing both Rafael Devers and Trevor Story.

Luis Garcia has been inconsistent lately but he is still 5-1 with a 4.12 ERA in his last seven starts. Nathan Eovaldi has been terrible lately. He has allowed 17 runs in 13 IP since returning from the IL. The Astros were19-9 in July, the Red Sox were 8-19 in July.

My model says the Red Sox cover in 61 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Boston won two of three against Houston in mid-May and is coming off its best offensive game since the All-Star break, a 7-2 triumph over Milwaukee on Sunday. Boston reached Astros RHP Luis Garcia for five runs on five hits and three walks over four innings in a 5-1 win on May 18. Take the Red Sox +1.5 runs at -130.