It's been a second since the Padres were imposing. They are 14-21 since June 16 and have been one of the worst offenses in baseball for the past month (.233/.307/.345, 89 wRC+ in last 30 days). The Twins have winning road record this season, too, and didn't play Thursday. This is enough to mitigate any "home-field advantage" we might be willing to toss the Padres' way. I like Joe Ryan over Blake Snell in the starting pitching matchup, too, so we're taking the road underdog.

You never know what youll get with Blake Snell, the Padres are 2-9 when he starts. Joe Ryan has been very consistent this season. The Twins are 8th in the league in wOBA against lefties in July while the Padres are 21st against righties. The Padres bullpen is also worked, and they’ve blown saves in two straight games. I like the Twins on the road.

Twins rookie Joe Ryan has a 2.05 ERA over his last four starts, allowing just 13 hits over 22 innings, and for the season opponents are hitting .207 against him. Minnesota has won 10 of his 15 starts. Blake Snell (2-5, 4.75 ERA) has pitched better lately, but he's always liable to walk several batters and you can't trust the Padres' bullpen. They've blown 16 saves, including two straight in Detroit on Tuesday and Wednesday. Play Minnesota at even money.