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Tue 07/05 | 11:05 PM UTC | Pittsburgh
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
N.Y. Yankees 73-46, -377 ML
NYY -1.5-125
NYY -195
Over 9-120
Pittsburgh Pirates 46-72, -682 ML
PIT +1.5+105
PIT +162
Under 9+100

Expert Picks

MLB | N.Y. Yankees 2 @ Pittsburgh 5 | 07/05 | 11:05 PM UTC

N.Y. Yankees -195

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Sportsbooks can be very weird/different, which I've noted many times previously both on here and Twitter. DraftKings opened this yesterday afternoon at -165 (where it stayed for about 30 minutes) while Caesars opened it at -235. Why it's always wise to shop around. Both have it in the -195 ballpark now. We will use the Caesars line, and I think I have to jump now that it's under -200 because I don't think it should be under that number -- not a big runline guy in terms of giving +1.5, especially to a home team. I would go meatballs (underrated Bill Murray movie from yesteryear; Spaz deserved his own spin-off) if the Bucs hit a solo homer in the bottom of the ninth to only lose by one run tonight. This will matter quite a bit to Yanks starter Jameson Taillon as he was the second overall pick in the 2010 MLB draft by Pittsburgh, debuted with the team in 2016 and was traded to New York before the 2021 season. Taillon (9-1, 3.32 ERA) has been better on the road with a 2.70 ERA. Pittsburgh's Jose Quintana (1-4, 3.43 ERA) is decent enough to where I don't think this will be a blowout but I will be surprised if NYY loses.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+3203 289-177-1 IN LAST 467 MLB PICKS
+774 21-8 IN LAST 29 PIT ML PICKS

Season Splits

73-46, -377 ML
46-72, -682 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
72%
58-22, +1198
32-47, -398
40%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
64%
24-13, +329
19-22, -82
46%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
72%
54-21, +821
23-41, -484
35%
When Line was -212 to -182
MONEY LINE
When Line was +150 to +180
64%
11-6, -25
4-11, -456
26%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
62%
20-12, -48
11-17, -192
39%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
78%
26-7, +445
13-24, -9
35%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
71%
25-10, +269
9-14, +362
39%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
100%
10-0, +524
0-11, -1100
0%
vs PIT
HEAD TO HEAD
vs NYY
0%
0-0, 0
0-0, 0
0%
when Jameson Taillon starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Jose Quintana starts
86%
13-2, +696
7-8, +153
46%