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Tue 06/28 | 5:10 PM UTC | Cleveland
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Minnesota Twins 74-79, -1941 ML
MIN -1.5+145
MIN -105
Over 8.5-110
Cleveland Guardians 86-67, +1301 ML
CLE +1.5-170
CLE -115
Under 8.5-110

Expert Picks

MLB | Minnesota 2 @ Cleveland 3 | 06/28 | 5:10 PM UTC

Cleveland +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Caesars is allowing me to take the Guardians on the runline for now -- even at an expensive price of -170 -- so I'm going to do so before this flips and it's Minnesota getting +1.5 as I think it should be. The Twins are not playing star outfielder Byron Buxton or third baseman Gio Urshela in the opener of the DH. Cleveland pitcher Zach Plesac has five straight quality starts. Minnesota's Devin Smeltzer has a 4.86 ERA on the road compared to 1.50 at home.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+4928 342-202-1 IN LAST 545 MLB PICKS
+1391 22-7 IN LAST 29 MIN ATS PICKS

Season Splits

74-79, -1941 ML
86-67, +1301 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
55%
42-34, +106
37-33, +352
52%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
52%
19-17, +187
17-14, +92
54%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
41%
12-17, -109
21-10, +482
67%
When Line was -121 to +109
MONEY LINE
When Line was -128 to +102
46%
6-7, -116
9-6, +198
60%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
50%
8-8, +311
12-7, +129
63%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
57%
8-6, +31
16-22, -243
42%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
54%
19-16, -204
10-12, -75
45%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
58%
35-25, +389
23-21, +243
52%
vs CLE
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIN
50%
4-4, -119
4-4, +35
50%
when Devin Smeltzer starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Zach Plesac starts
55%
5-4, +107
6-8, -39
42%