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Tue 06/07 | 10:40 PM UTC | Miami
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Washington Nationals 53-99, -1456 ML
WAS +1.5-130
WAS +160
Over 9-110
Miami Marlins 63-90, -3130 ML
MIA -1.5+110
MIA -180
Under 9-110

Expert Picks

MLB | Washington 2 @ Miami 12 | 06/07 | 10:40 PM UTC

Miami -180

WIN

ANALYSIS: Honestly, I probably shouldn't do this because I don't completely trust young Miami pitcher Edward Cabrera, although he was great in his 2022 season debut last week at Colorado. But it looks as if I'll win on the Guardians early today so let's just fade Washington's Joan Adon (1-9, 5.98 ERA) here knowing we have an early W (probably just jinxed it) in my pocket. No pitcher has been less profitable in the majors. On the road, he's 0-5 with 6.46 ERA. Adon was decent earlier this year in Miami, but that means the Marlins at least have the book on him. Miami is 5-1 in its past six as a home favorite.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+4928 342-202-1 IN LAST 545 MLB PICKS
+546 12-5 IN LAST 17 MIA ML PICKS
+1391 18-3 IN LAST 21 WAS ML PICKS

Season Splits

53-99, -1456 ML
63-90, -3130 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
37%
21-35, -698
22-30, -1013
42%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
41%
12-17, +139
12-14, -394
46%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
34%
16-31, -699
13-10, -15
56%
When Line was +143 to +173
MONEY LINE
When Line was -201 to -171
33%
4-8, -171
1-4, -347
20%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
42%
12-16, +239
9-7, -18
56%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
43%
7-9, -209
9-10, -255
47%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
0%
0-2, -200
16-13, +142
55%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
42%
3-4, -123
3-6, -343
33%
vs MIA
HEAD TO HEAD
vs WAS
16%
1-5, -340
5-1, +231
83%
when Joan Adon starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Edward Cabrera starts
9%
1-10, -921
1-0, +96
100%