The various models like the Blue Jays behind Kevin Gausman, but I think his 2021 season with the Giants was largely a fluke and he wasn't great in his Toronto debut vs. Texas. Aaron Judge kills Gausman career, going 8-for-17 with three homers and two doubles. I'm also taking the Yankees because they have perhaps their best offensive lineup possible with Giancarlo Stanton playing the outfield, which is somewhat rare, and outfielder Aaron Hicks on the bench along with catcher Kyle Higashioka. Toronto, meanwhile, is without DH Teoscar Hernandez and 3B Matt Chapman. I'd probably take the Toronto RL if it was a bit more reasonably priced but since it's not, we'll take New York ML.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was "only" hitting .263/.300/.421 before Wednesday night, but he's all of a sudden up to .391/.417/.957 (love those small samples!). Vlad Jr. feeling good is really bad news for the opponent. Yankees starter Luis Severino isn't all the way back yet. He only lasted three innings on 65 pitches last time out. The Yankees bullpen has been great, but it has worked 30 2/3 innings in a week and the Yankees haven't had a day off. And this Jays offense can go off without any notice. Just look at Vlad's before and after above. On the other side, the Yankees' offense has been pretty reliant on home runs and that figures to continue to be the case all season, given the makeup of the lineup. Jays' starter Kevin Gausman is the most splitter-heavy pitcher in baseball and is excellent at keeping the ball on the ground.