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Tue 10/12 | 9:15 PM UTC | Atlanta
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Milwaukee Brewers 96-69, +464 ML
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Over 8-110
Atlanta Braves 90-74, -169 ML
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Under 8-110

Expert Picks

Milwaukee 4 @ Atlanta 5 | 10/12 | 9:15 PM UTC

Milwaukee +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I took the Under 8.5 runs but will back the Brewers at -160 on the runline (basically same price Atlanta is on moneyline, so it's simply value) because they are OVERDUE to score at least a run or two, and that might be all it takes to win ... or lose by one the way this series is going. While Brewers starting pitcher Eric Lauer is well-rested, Atlanta's Charlie Morton makes his first start on less than four days of rest since 2008. Doubt he is out there very long after 85 pitches in Game 1.

author-image

Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2573 151-110 IN LAST 261 MLB ATS PICKS
+214 3-1 IN LAST 4 MIL ATS PICKS

Season Splits

96-69, +464 ML
90-74, -169 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
58%
96-69, +464
90-74, -215
54%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
61%
50-32, +1207
43-38, -621
53%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
53%
23-20, +792
67-44, +51
60%
When Line was +128 to +158
MONEY LINE
When Line was -168 to -138
55%
5-4, +305
19-14, -150
57%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
59%
19-13, +998
36-30, -686
54%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
53%
23-20, +228
21-27, -763
43%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
55%
10-8, -141
24-30, -667
44%
2nd game without a day off
REST
2nd game without a day off
68%
15-7, +446
12-11, -96
52%
vs ATL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIL
44%
4-5, -139
5-4, +146
55%
when Eric Lauer starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Charlie Morton starts
50%
10-10, -224
17-17, -551
50%