Maybe I'm picking with my heart and not my head here as a White Sox fan, but Chicago pitcher Dylan Cease was much better at home this season. Tony La Russa really hasn't been able to use his three-headed bullpen monster of Michael Kopech, Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks yet. If Cease can get the Sox the lead into the sixth inning, which I think he can, then La Russa will be able to use those guys to close it out. While the Sox were below .500 on the road this season, they were 53-28 at home.

It feels like the wrong team is favored here as this should at least be another 10-15 cents toward the Astros, in my opinion. This Houston team is battle-tested over many years and has won each of the first two games of this series by five runs. Going to Chicago should make this contest a bit closer than the first two, but the Astros have a great chance to win and sweep this series. Houston still has a very deep lineup and RHP Luis Garcia will hold the White Sox to moderate production at best. At the end of the day, my expected win percentage here for the Astros is a good deal better than what the book is offering. Take the plus money.

Dylan Cease is much better at home, so it makes sense why they wanted to give him the start here. However, this should have been Carlos Rodon’s spot and that would have given the White Sox a much better chance to win. This is obviously an elimination game for the White Sox too so I think they will pull Cease at any sign of trouble. Luis Garcia was worse on the road this season, just like the Astros were at 44-37 while the White Sox were 53-28 at home. Garcia faced the White Sox once this season allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. Cease was hit hard in his first start against the Astros this season but gave up 3 ER in 5.2 IP at home. Michael Kopech and Liam Hendriks have yet to pitch in this series and the White Sox won’t have a chance if they don’t. I think the White Sox avoid the sweep at home today, but I think the Astros will end this series in Chicago. Take the White Sox to last 1 more game.

The White Sox had a losing road record this year, but went 53-28 at home. They hit better at home as a team and the offense isn't likely to go quietly. Astros starter Luis Garcia is pretty inconsistent and his splits also help, as he was nearly two full runs worse on the road (2.39 home ERA, 4.24 on road). On the flip side, White Sox starter Dylan Cease is much better at home (3.18 vs. 4.69). Cease lost both of his starts against the Astros this season, but his last one was a while ago (July 16) and he struck out 10 in 5 2/3 innings. He has the highest strikeout rate in the AL and was excellent in his last three starts.