American league teams playing in their own stadium have gone 15-3 in the first two Division Series games since the MLB made the first playoff series a best-of-five in 2016. The Houston lineup is much deeper than Chicago's, and the Astros are more battle-tested. Houston starter Framber Valdez has been solid this season, pitches a bit better in day games and is stronger against righthanded batters, of which the White Sox have many. Lucas Giolito won't struggle as much as Lance Lynn yesterday, but I still like Houston to get it done.

Both these starting pitchers have been very good in the playoffs in their short playoff careers. Lucas Giolito has made just 1 postseason start, but he tossed a 1 run, 7 inning gem last year. Framber Valdez also made his postseason debut last year with no fans, and all he did was pitch at least 5 innings in all four starts without allowing more than 2 ER in any of them. The White Sox had the 5th best wOBA in the league against lefties this season but the Astros had the 4th best wOBA in the league against righties. Valdez faced the White Sox twice this season and allowed 2 ER in one game and 4 ER in the other while pitching 7 and 6.1 innings, respectively. Giolito faced the Astros once this season, and tossed a 1 run complete game, but it was at home. The White Sox are 40-42 now on the road this season including the postseason and they are 27-30 against teams over .500. Take the Astros at home.

Game 1 closed at a total of 7.5 runs and an argument can be made the pitching matchup is better in Game 2 with Chicago's Lucas Giolito and Houston's Framber Valdez -- Giolito had a 2.36 ERA in his final nine starts and probably should have started the opener instead of Lance Lynn. The Sox also have all three key relievers available after not using any in the Game 1 blowout loss. I fully expect this lookahead total to drop.