The Dodgers have lost the first three games of this series and they have looked very beatable while doing it. They came into this series on a nine game winning streak but the last three games have been close and their defense and bullpen has let them down. Justin Turner is getting the day off for the Dodgers while the Marlins have their normal lineup starting. Sandy Alcantara is much better at home. The Dodgers are streaky and they head home after the game, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Marlins get the sweep.

The Dodgers have burned me twice already this week -- despite being tied in the ninth inning of both losses -- so I'm not about to pick them to win outright again. They are sitting Justin Turner and AJ Pollock today as they try to avoid the four-game sweep. Julio Urias (10-3, 3.81) is certainly good enough to beat the Marlins, but they start the very good Sandy Alcantara (5-7, 2.96). He has been a bit better at home and great (1.51 ERA) in day games. Marlins at -125 on the runline is the play.

These teams finish their series with a very quick turnaround from Wednesday night, and it should be a good pitchers' duel between the Dodgers' Julio Urias and the Marlins' Sandy Alcantara. My model actually does lean Over the 7.5 runs, however. But the Grade A pick is Miami +1.5 at -130 as it covers in 66 percent of simulations.