The Nats are dogs at home tonight because Jon Lester is making his first start off the COVID list and the Marlins surprisingly have the fifth highest OPS in the league against lefties. However, the Marlins are missing key players in their lineup like Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson and Jazz Chisholm. The Marlins are just 8-26 in their last 34 trips to Nats Park. These bullpens only have 0.12 difference between ERAs, so I like the Nats at home with plus money.

Why are the Nationals home underdogs vs. the Marlins? Granted, Miami has a bit better record and Pablo Lopez (0-2, 2.93) has allowed two or fewer runs in all but one of his five starts this season. However, he has an 8.10 ERA in four career starts at Nationals Park and the Marlins have a few key players on IL. It will be the season and team debut of Nats lefty Jon Lester. He was on the COVID list but has been building up his arm, so he should be able to go normal length. Pretty confident Washington wins this game but we'll take the RL gift at -145.