I actually love this line to double down on the Cards for all the reasons I mentioned in my earlier post. In terms of the run line, there is a lot of sharp money pouring in on the Cardinals so I wouldn't be surprised to see this line flip. The Cardinals play close games, especially at home and I like their bullpen over the Phillies after they used everyone last night. I was originally thinking the under would be a good play, but I really don't like it at 7. Take the run line to hedge.

The Phillies are in the bottom half of the league in OPS against lefties, and they get Kwang-Hyun Kim coming off a career performance against the Reds. Bryce Harper is out of the lineup after being hit by a pitch in the face last night, and so is Did Gregorius due to a HBP of his own. Aaron Nola is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA this season but he is much worse on the road, and he pitched a shutout against the Cards in their first matchup so the Cards bats have seen him. The Phillies are 4-8 on the road this season, and they took two out of the first three games in St. Louis. Take the value in the Cards at home.

I've backed the Cardinals on the runline this entire series and will stick with them in the getaway game. One big reason is that Philadelphia will sit star Bryce Harper (see news feed). He left Wednesday's 5-3 win after being hit in the face with a pitch. Harper is hitting .321 with six homers and 10 RBIs. The Phils start ace Aaron Nola (2-1, 2.84), but he has not bee nearly as good in two road starts so far. Philadelphia is also 0-8 in its past eight after a win. It's lefty Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 4.15) for St. Louis. He has a 2.08 ERA in his 10 career starts and has been much better at home.